Insurance and Risky Opportunities
Now we will travel back in time to the beginning of the year and start all over.
This time you have 2 choices
You could pay money that would provide an insurance payout that would pay off your loan in a bad year, but would cost money even if its not bad.
Again, you have a 1 in 5 chance of drought.
The insurance is a financial service, not a gift so you only get as much money in the payment as you put in on average. That means if you get 5 coins as the insurance payout in the bad year, you will have to pay 1 coin each year, plus any finance fees.
We have 5 packages of gum in my hat.
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The 4 blue ones represent a year with adequate rainfall
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The 1 red one represents a year with a drought
We will randomly draw one of the packages from the hat, and if its red, there was a drought.
Now--make two separate choices!
1) Productive risk
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Put your left thumb up if you take the chance
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Put your left thumb down if you stay with your current, low productivity package
2) Insurance
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Put your right thumb up if you buy insurance
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Put your right thumb down if you do not buy insurance
